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          鴉片戰爭:全面分析清朝政府為什么會輸掉鴉片戰爭?

          發布時間:2017-12-27 編輯:管理員 瀏覽:
          導語:近代中國遭遇兩千年未有之奇劫巨變,第一次鴉片戰爭是這場巨變的沉重開端。近兩百年來有關鴉片戰爭的分析研究著述不知凡幾,之所以推薦《天朝的崩潰》,是本書作者以極其豐富翔實的……
          全面分析清朝政府為什么會輸掉鴉片戰爭?
              近代中國遭遇“兩千年未有之奇劫巨變”,第一次鴉片戰爭是這場巨變的沉重開端。近兩百年來有關鴉片戰爭的分析研究著述不知凡幾,之所以推薦《天朝的崩潰》,是本書作者以極其豐富翔實的史料支撐起獨到而又精辟的觀點,令筆者對那段不堪回首的歷史的認知大為加深。
              全書的框架脈絡大致是基于鴉片戰爭的時間發展過程。進入主題之前,本書先為“賣國賊”琦善翻案。作者指出,琦善既無賣國動機,時人和后人指控他的各項罪名也不成立。琦善的所謂“罪過”在于他不主張以武力抵抗英軍入侵,企圖與英國妥協來達成和解。結果,按照時人非黑即白的道德觀,妥協既是投降,投降又上升為賣國。
              琦善被視為奸臣更深刻的根源,在于中國傳統史學家和史料作者慣用的“奸臣模式”——即令奸臣背黑鍋,承擔本應由舊體制承擔的責任,這樣皇帝作為明君的名譽得以保全,進而維護保全了中國的道統禮教。需要指出,琦善在戰爭期間并非沒有嚴重過失,本書作者的目的也不是為前者辯誣。鴉片戰爭失敗的根本原因不是琦善及其后一批清朝貴戚大臣的妥協賣國,而是面對已經近代化的頭號強國,清朝在軍事、科技、政治以及外交制度等領域全面落后。
          全面分析清朝政府為什么會輸掉鴉片戰爭?

          清朝與英國軍事實力對比

              19世紀40年代清朝正規軍在80萬人左右,包括20萬八旗兵和60萬綠營兵,然而清軍極為分散,駐防于全國各地,用于防止和鎮壓民眾叛亂并維持社會治安,兼具軍隊和警察的功能。英國侵略軍最多時有兩萬人,在東南沿海與清軍交鋒時,兩方參戰人數大體相當,英軍有時還占優勢。
              軍隊人數不是戰爭中清朝一敗涂地的重要因素。英國的軍事戰術、武器裝備和人員素質已經進入熱兵器時代,戰爭經驗豐富。清朝士兵仍大量使用刀槍弓等冷兵器,他們的火器質量差,其制造技術、工藝,甚至使用方法都已過時。清朝的炮臺只能對付海盜,不能有效抵御英國戰艦和陸軍的炮火。清軍軍紀廢弛,指揮官和普通士兵都未經過近代戰爭的洗禮,強烈密集的火炮攻擊能給清軍造成嚴重的心理恐慌,進而導致潰逃。
          全面分析清朝政府為什么會輸掉鴉片戰爭?

          能干忠臣林則徐的局限

              林則徐虎門硝煙,英國損失極大,駐華商務總監義律游說英國國會報復中國。1840年6月下旬,英國遠征軍到達廣州海面,鴉片戰爭正式爆發。林則徐禁煙有功,但帶來了戰爭,這是道光帝最不愿意看到的,因此遭革職。當時輿論和后世研究多認為,如果道光帝能任用林則徐這樣有能力的主戰派,清朝未必輸掉鴉片戰爭,這又進入了本書強調的忠奸模式——如果奸小無從妨礙,忠臣能夠效力, 君民上下一心,對付桀驁不馴的“蠻夷”,清軍定能殺他個“片帆不歸”。
              能干忠臣林則徐也生活于天朝上國的文化與體制之中,傲視鄙視諸夷。林算是中國開眼看世界的第一人,他對是否會有戰爭的判斷卻是大錯特錯。戰前林則徐堅信,不斷出現于中國海域的軍艦不過是與義律勾結的武裝商船,而非英國政府派出的軍隊。林則徐對海戰攻防的認識也未脫離已落伍之傳統戰術,比如加多炮臺、增厚城墻、火船襲擊、登艦攻敵。林以為這些手段就足以應敵,完全想象不到不到英軍船堅炮利到何種程度,更不知英國陸軍同樣戰術先進火力強大 。
              林則徐作為文臣,對其軍事素養當然不能要求過高,但滿清其他文武大員對近代戰爭的理解也不比他高明。
          全面分析清朝政府為什么會輸掉鴉片戰爭?

          剿敵與撫敵:謊言與現實

              清朝對付外夷的策略,主要是剿和撫,所謂撫就是不使用武力,訴諸安撫和籠絡。道光帝最初定下撫敵策略基于以下幾點考慮:第一、英軍艦于海上來往奔突,而清軍要在幾千里的海岸線部署防御,難以速勝,戰事會長期拖延;第二、國家財力經不起消耗;第三,英方的要求在于貿易和“訴冤”。這第三點考慮大大低估了英國的胃口。
              在資質平平的“萬邦之主”道光帝看來,化外之邦的英夷竟然提出割讓海島、平等外交和賠償等非份要求,不可理喻,他也就沒有重視。本書作者甚至推斷,道光后來完全忘了這幾條要求。
              道光帝所能做出的妥協(恢復通商、部分賠償英國商人損失等)最多也只達到了英國人的最低要求,因此撫敵必然失敗。南下廣州的欽差大臣琦善無法與英國全權代表義律達成任何有效協議,1841年1月英軍攻下珠江口最靠海的沙角和大角炮臺后,道光決定全力攻剿。剿夷主將奕山和楊芳意識到清朝的水師和炮臺根本不敵英軍,因此同琦善一樣靠謊言過日子。奕山和楊芳無中生有、扭曲夸大,編造種種勝績,道光帝完全蒙在鼓里,以為剿夷勝利在望。
              為什么這些大臣不敢以真相告知道光?在當時信息閉塞和盲目自大的氛圍里,天朝大多數人包括道光帝都持有近乎幻想的信念:泱泱大清只要一致對外,不可能打不過區區“島夷”。 因此真相會令皇帝認為這些大臣要么怯敵、要么無能、甚至受敵賄賂。
              早在琦善謊言欺君之前,負責收復浙江定海的伊里布就謊話連篇,但他比較幸運,并沒被很快拆穿。從伊里布開始,絕大多數參與對英戰事的大臣,無論滿漢,都以謊言蒙蔽道光,甚至偷偷違旨,采取更為現實而非理論上天朝本應如何的策略。隨著戰局急轉直下,大臣們的謊言一個比一個驚人。謊言掩蓋不住廣州城外一個個炮臺接連失守,1841年5月下旬,英軍陸軍在廣州城北越秀山架起了野戰火炮,準備炮轟廣州,這時奕山舉起白旗求和。
              奕山同意停戰條件之后,英軍撤離廣州。想象力豐富的奕山,居然能將廣州戰敗編織成英軍前來求和,道光帝竟然會相信,奕山還因退夷有功獲得嘉賞,滑天下之大稽!清朝官軍雖然一敗再敗,實際傷亡比例并不高,因為多是炮擊之下一哄而散,當然也有部分官兵和將領血戰直到陣亡,比如廣東水師提督關天培。
          全面分析清朝政府為什么會輸掉鴉片戰爭?

          東南沿海清軍連戰連敗

              奕山極其幸運,英軍從廣州撤出,先后遭遇疾疫流行和兩次臺風,而義律因違背英國外相巴麥尊的訓令被撤職,新任全權代表璞鼎查8月才趕到澳門,因此奕山的謊言得以維持3個月之久。然而璞鼎查帶來新使命,決定北上給清朝更沉重打擊,逼其接受上面提及的屈辱條款。
              福建和浙江的封疆大臣顏伯燾和裕謙都是深孚眾望的主戰派官員,他們也確實有時間和資源加固廈門、定海(廣州談判期間被英軍歸還)和鎮海等地的防御,然而他們仍是屢戰不敵、丟城失地。英軍武器裝備固然先進,但他們的戰術手段也行之有效屢試不爽——以艦炮正面攻擊炮臺和城市,陸軍從清軍側后登陸,建立野戰炮兵陣地,與海軍聯手合擊。
              縱使有琦善、奕山等人多次失敗的戰例在前,顏伯燾和裕謙及其手下的文臣武將仍然充滿自信,不將英夷放在眼里,故而以大體相同的防御措施應對英軍,然而還是一敗再敗。為何如此?在本書作者看來,一個深層的原因是清朝的官紳士子深受宋明理學的影響,相信制勝不在器物,而在“人心”,有脫離實際的傾向,技術、裝備、戰術等器物都不足為道,過度強調“理”性和“人心”。在激勵人心上最努力的是兩江總督裕謙,定海之戰他手下三位總兵和多數兵勇壯烈犧牲,裕謙本人也自殺殉國。
              道光帝為挽救敗局派出揚威將軍奕經,命令多省派軍支援浙江。1842年3月10日,浙東反攻打響,但這場準備了四個月的反攻居然在四小時之內全部瓦解。戰前戰后,奕經和他之前的官員一樣大肆捏謊,編造勝績,推卸責任。
              道光帝重新考慮妥協,不過他打算先剿再撫,由奕經主剿來獲得談判籌碼,勝后則由新任欽差大臣耆英主撫(實際就是妥協談判)。英國人已失去耐心,決定給清朝致命一擊。1842年7月,英軍驅艦進入長江,拿下長江和大運河交匯之處的鎮江。清廷震驚,清朝北運的漕糧鎮江一地占據三分之一,失去鎮江,京糧告急。英軍更進一步,直逼中國南方最重要的城市南京。此時道光帝放棄一切剿敵幻想,決定妥協,令耆英與英國交涉可以“便宜從事”。
          全面分析清朝政府為什么會輸掉鴉片戰爭?

          南京條約:多米諾骨牌啟動

              南京條約無疑是一份喪權辱國的不平等條約。從經濟社會角度來看,中國開始被強迫納入世界貿易體系,此后中國傳統的生產模式遭到西方商品的沖擊,沿海地區的民眾生活大為受損。然而從更長期的角度看,南京條約客觀上卻也促進中國與世界發展趨勢接軌,擺脫封閉落后的循環。
              清朝無人具備國際常識、理解近代國家主權和外交規則,璞鼎查利用這種信息不對稱,抓住機會與耆英談判,簽訂了一個比南京條約對中國主權更具破壞的虎門條約,而耆英還認為是為清朝挽回利益。通過虎門條約清朝損失的重大權益包括:(通商口岸)的關稅自主權,對英國人的司法審判權,片面最惠國待遇以及英艦進出通商口岸權,這些權益的喪失為日后中國與西方列強交涉埋下了各種定時炸彈。
              美國、法國趁火打劫,派出軍艦威脅恫嚇,與清政府簽訂了不平等的望廈條約和黃埔條約,其實兩國當時都不能與中國開戰。此后,比利時、丹麥、瑞典和挪威等歐洲小國也毫不費力地攫取了英法美在華的條約權利。
              鴉片戰爭后不久,日本也被迫向西方列強開放門戶,但日本知恥后勇,明治維新后迅速崛起,并反過頭來欺凌曾經師從的文明。清朝卻依舊沉醉于“天朝上國”的迷夢中,沒有任何改變,清軍將士的熱血空灑白流!而當時或剿或撫的一眾清廷大員包括林則徐,在戰后也沒有人深刻反省,尋找新思路。
              幸好,中國最優秀的思想家魏源、徐繼畬和梁廷枬能“放下天朝的架子,平靜地看待另一種文明”,他們的著作成為國人了解世界的窗口。
           

          上一篇:關羽為何要發動襄樊戰役?導致關羽敗走麥城的原因是什么?

          下一篇:歷史上北宋軍隊實力不俗 卻“不堪一擊” 為什么不能征服連個帝國?

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